The new naira notes
The currencies of Uganda, Ghana and Zambia are expected to remain under pressure in the next week to Thursday, while those of Nigeria and Kenya are forecast to be largely stable, traders said.
UGANDA
Uganda’s shilling is expected to extend recent losses as the Iran war continues to drive demand for dollars.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,925/3,935 to the dollar, weaker than last Thursday’s close of 3,860/3,870.
Uncertainty over how long the conflict will last has prompted some market participants to make forward purchases to lock in exchange rates, said Adam Mugume, the central bank’s executive director for research and policy.
Demand for dollars from manufacturers and energy-sector firms remains strong, Mugume said.
A trader said the shilling could test the 4,000-per-dollar level in the coming days, which would be its weakest level ever against the U.S. currency.
GHANA
Ghana’s cedi is likely to fall modestly as dollar demand, particularly from the energy and services sectors, continues to outstrip supply on the interbank market.
LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 11.50 to the dollar on Thursday compared to 11.45 a weak earlier.
“Although market pressures remain elevated, ongoing support from the central bank and (Ghana’s artisanal gold marketing agency) should help meet demand,” a trader said.
“We do not expect a significant weakening beyond current levels, as the authorities have adequate reserves and are likely to intervene if excess demand threatens market stability,” the trader added.
ZAMBIA
Zambia’s kwacha will probably edge lower amid strong corporate and import-related demand for hard currency.
On Thursday, commercial banks were selling the currency of Africa’s second-largest copper producer at 19.94 per dollar from 19.53 a week ago.
Access Bank said in a note that the kwacha was being hit by higher global energy prices, despite elevated copper prices, slowing inflation and a calmer political environment after last month’s election.
NIGERIA
Nigeria’s naira is seen holding steady, supported by central bank dollar sales and subdued demand for foreign exchange.
LSEG data showed the naira quoted at 1,328 to the dollar on the official market on Thursday, around the same level it closed a week ago.
The unit was changing hands at 1,390 to the dollar in street trading .
“Dollar sales by the (Central Bank of Nigeria) are helping to meet short-term demand and at the same time, import demand remains relatively subdued in mid-September compared with the typical fourth-quarter seasonal demand,” a trader said.
KENYA
Kenya’s shilling is expected to remain broadly stable over the coming week, with little movement anticipated.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 129.50/70 per dollar, compared with 129.30/50 at last Thursday’s close.
REUTERS
