Census 2023
Ask ten Nigerians. You’ll get 10 different answers. 220 million, 230 million, 250 million. Different numbers keep popping up. Worldometer, the global live population counter, reads 242.7 million.
The latest is that the National Population Commission (NPC) has commenced a nationwide digital registration of births and deaths under the Electronic Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (E-CRVS) system. In lay man’s language, it means the NPC has digitalised the process of birth and death registration.
An NPC Federal Commissioner representing Kogi, Mr. Afolabi Yori, announced that the initiative became operational nationwide on July 1, through the VitalReg platform. This is great. And it syncs with global standard for birth and death capturing.
But, hey, there is a bigger, more compelling matter. The matter of how many we really are in Nigeria. Ask ten Nigerians. You’ll get 10 different answers. 220 million, 230 million, 250 million. Different numbers keep popping up. Worldometer, the global live population counter, reads 242.7 million. World Bank open data puts it at 237.5 million. Encyclopedia Britannica’s record says Nigeria has an estimated population of 239.4 million. These are the various figures you’ll find on the internet. The last revised official estimate by the NPC placed Nigeria population at 216 million. Different sources, different figures, one nation. Utter confusion. Chaotic guesstimates. This is so because in reality, nobody knows the population of Nigeria, not even Nigerians, nor the agency responsible for headcount. And you can’t blame them. The last official headcount in Nigeria was in 2006. That’s a good 20 years ago. No serious nation plans without credible data. All the numbers being quoted as Nigeria’s population are assumed, projected or forecast figures.
This makes the matter of census both imperative and compelling. During President Muhammadu Buhari administration, Nigeria was primed to have its first ever ‘digital census’ in 2022. It was postponed till 2023. To demonstrate its commitment to having the headcount, the federal government in early February 2023 through the NPC took delivery of the census materials supplied by vendors, technical consultants and partners. The materials were delivered nationwide in readiness for the census as at then scheduled for the second quarter of 2023.
Again, the headcount could not hold in 2023 because of the general elections. Since then, the materials have continued to gather dust in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) facilities in 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). This means that the materials for the census have marked their three years anniversary in CBN offices, unused. That’s about N400 billion wasting away.
By now, most of the equipment may have gone bad due to humidity and lack of use giving that they may not have been stored in the best conditions that would guarantee their durability and effectiveness over a long period. Some devices, namely tablets and other handhelds, have been known to malfunction when stored in a humid environment on account of heat and poor aeration. Some of the equipment procured for the census include tablets, batteries, power-banks and medical first aid materials.
While some of the first aid materials may have expired, the motherboards inside the tablets could go bad if the humidity in the storage facilities exceed certain threshold.
Nigerians strongly desire to have accurate census figure and credible demographics about their country. Many say they have no confidence in the estimated figure being quoted in the last 20 years.
The fear is that Nigeria may lose most, if not all, of the materials. Some Nigerians want President Bola Tinubu to direct the NPC to donate the 750,000 tablets, power-banks and other items to Nigerian students across the country before they go completely bad.
Techies say the probability of the systems going bad is high. They explained that the Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) which is the tablet to be used in the population and housing census has a shelf-life of about three years which is the shelf-life of tablets. But even this may be compromised if they are not stored in appropriate environmental conditions. Tablets are not designed to last for many years like laptops and desktops because of their low processing power and difficult upgradability.
By any index of development, this is tardy and completely unacceptable. No serious nation should wait for a long haul of 20 years to organise a headcount that ought to hold every 10 years, and in some countries every 5 years. It does not only show lack of seriousness, it projects a picture of gross underdevelopment and paints a portrait of a people in a bind and unwilling to crawl out of the dark alley. Census is not for fun. It’s for planning, for development, for investment decisions, for improved healthcare, allocation of critical resources, siting of health, educational institutions, general infrastructure allocation, among other props of development.
Advanced and developing nations across the globe conduct censuses quietly, conveniently and accurately, relatively so. They have achieved the UN-recommended frequency of ‘every 10 years’. For some, it’s now every five years. With that, they can effectively plan for the development of their respective countries. They can effectively delineate their population along the critical lines of demographics, gender, education, population density relative to counties, towns, cities, states, and any other sub-nationals that constitute the superstructure called country. Why then is the case of Nigeria different? Nigerian factor? Lack of political will at the centre? Inadequate resources? Whatever it is, there must come a time in the life of a nation when both will and resources must coalesce. For Nigeria and its census, this is that time. The Bola Tinubu government must muster the will to conduct a national headcount this year. Failure to do so, the nation suffers humungous loss and damage. Having been delayed, postponed or cancelled these past years, Nigeria cannot afford further deferment in conducting a verifiable census worthy of a nation that seeks to attract foreign investors.
Aside not earning the confidence of foreign investors who usually rely on national population and demographics data to make informed decisions on where and what to invest, Nigeria stands to lose billions of naira already invested in the twice-deferred headcount. Over N400 billion worth of technical equipment and accessories procured by the NPC for the botched 2023 census may go to waste if the Federal Government fails to action the conduct of the national headcount this year.
But, oh, I forgot. We are busy with elections now. Census can wait until Godot arrives.
