Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, the French critic, journalist, and novelist, made one of the most often quoted statements in 1849. “The more things change, the more they remain the same”, he said in his satirical publication ‘Les Guêpes’ (The Wasps).
He may have used it to express the idea that despite superficial changes, certain fundamental aspects of society or human nature stay constant. It has been accepted as an eternal truth and applies to political and economic issues. This was what came to mind as Bayo Onanuga, President Bola Tinubu’s spokesman, issued his rebuttal shortly after the new political coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), was born. It was an attempt to brand the new party as one designed to drag Nigeria. He dismissed the group as one that poses a threat to Nigeria’s democratic progress and stability.
That sounded very familiar with what transpired in 2014 when the tables were different. Then APC was called an alliance of strange bedfellows who had no game plan on what to do with power except the desire to just capture it from the ruling PDP. APC was portrayed as a coalition of diverse groups with conflicting interests, suggesting it would not be a cohesive or sustainable political force. To PDP spokespersons at the time, the newly formed opposition party will implode sooner than later due to internal conflicts before the end of 2014. The rest, they say, is history.
Against the backdrop of repeatedly acknowledging that former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration was an unmitigated disaster, Onanuga and his team have their job cut out convincing Nigerians that APC, the same APC that saw Buhari through his eight years in office, is the real deal and not the “political desperados driven by personal ambition and bitterness” he labelled ADC. Onanuga’s predecessor in 2014, Lai Mohammed unleashed a series of salvos, many vitriolic, that really hurt Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and his government at the time. He labelled the PDP government as corrupt and inefficient, and highlighted issues like the handling of the Boko Haram insurgency and economic challenges. He perfected the art of blaming the PDP for what ordinarily should have been the electoral liability APC undertook to fix. By May 2016, Lai had laid the ground work for Buhari’s penchant to blame PDP for his failures he employed well into his second term. “President Jonathan’s men have stolen so much; they are richer than government,” Lai Mohammed often repeated.
Specific criticisms included accusations of failing to tackle corruption effectively, mismanagement of the economy, and a weak response to the growing threat of Boko Haram and also portrayed Jonathan’s government as lacking transparency and accountability. It is a template ADC may not need to rejig now they are on the other side.
Just months after Tinubu unleashed the rash of policies that overnight dragged millions of homes into multidimensional poverty bracket, the “bring our corruption back” mantra that trended from Nigerians was a stark reminder to the new government that its reforms had made life excruciatingly challenging for them. Now that the tables are turned, Bolaji Abdullahi and his ADC media team may not have to change anything if they haul the words wholesale back to APC. And if alleged looters in PDP were wealthier than the government as Lai alleged, that much can be said of the President’s men. Ironically, one of the Tinubu’s main men is not even a member of the ruling party, not officially at least.
Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister, takes delight in flaunting his Rolls Royce luxury car in public official functions after hounding his elected successor out of office with Aso Rock’s undisguised backing. He is just one of the many, the only difference being that others may be more discretional and have more emotional intelligence than him.
Team Onanuga no longer has the multiple fronts they enjoyed in 2014 this time. What they see as the most effective strategy so far is keep attacking Peter Obi who was not even part of the fray in 2014. Obi was derisively reminded that he only came third in the 2023 presidential election. But that belies the barely concealed fear in the ruling party of the man who defeated Tinubu in his home state, Lagos and made inroads in other zones at a time he was not reckoned with. The other strategy now employed to demarket ADC is to call the coalition as driven by hatred for Tinubu. I am not sure what that means, but there is no doubt Onanuga knows that narrative does not gel with Nigerians. A leader is as loved as the good life he gets his people to lead.
Unfortunately unlike in 2015, the election of 2027 will not be determined by the level of false propaganda parroted by the parties. The outcome may be determined by what comes out when a bread winner dips his hand in the pocket.
