Nigeria is red. Blood red. Headline inflation is high at 34.2 percent (June), highest rate in 28 years. And fuel is feuding again. Does President Bola Tinubu know this? It is not new that fuel is scarce and expensive. But it has never been this scary. The scenes at filling stations these days make one cringe. Long queues at stations that have petrol. Deserted scenery at those with ‘no fuel.’ And little crowd at stations with petrol but at expensive prices, from N950 to N1200 per litre. These are troubling times, a throwback to the pre-deregulation era but with far more devastating economic consequences.

In May, 2009, Nigeria went through such motion of fuel scarcity. And the people thought they had seen the worst. In an article captioned: Hark, the Fuel is Feuding, published in BusinessDay at that time, this writer wrote in his column: It was an unsightly scene. Nigeria is full of such ugly scenes: long queues for fuel at filling stations, angry youths bearing jerry cans of fuel, empty filling stations with ‘no fuel’ signs. Yet, Nigeria is a strong member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Nigeria is Africa’s largest exporter of crude oil. There is no OPEC member with such troubled fuel supply history like Nigeria. Not even Iraq, Iran and Angola, three war-roiled nations. Don’t even mention Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, two glittering countries where the streets are paved with gold, where infrastructure rank among the best in the world. Every day, Nigerians jet off to Dubai and they regale you with stories about the magnificence and majesty of this Arab Emirate. They talk about the burnished roads, the sky-gracing hotels, the splendour and grandeur of a small patch of earth. They forgot that Nigeria could just have been another Dubai; that Lagos and Abuja could have been another Mecca or Jeddah for that matter if those who manage the country had not taken to the path of corruption: seize our national patrimony and convert it to personal wealth. It was so under Obasanjo. We are still feuding over fuel under Yar’Adua. Nothing truly has changed. It is a shame.’

That was 15 years ago. Today, fuel is still feuding. Anger is boiling at filling stations. This time with more intensity. Angry youths are still selling petrol in jerry cans at their own determined price. It is raw war out there and I doubt if President Tinubu is aware of the hardship the high cost of fuel (diesel, petrol and kerosene) has brought on the citizens.

Today, petrol is not only scarce, it’s expensive. In 2009, Nigerians bought petrol from the black market at N2000 for 10 litres.  That same year, petrol sold officially for N65 per litre, meaning motorists bought 30 litres with N2,000.  And how Nigerians cried and yearned for better days ahead. Fast-forward to 2024, the same N2000 cannot by 2 litres from the black market. It can only buy 2 litres at the filling station. This is a measure of how much the country has retrogressed over the years. It’s getting tougher and rougher.

All the paradisal promises of abundance of fuel once the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) becomes an Act  of parliament (PIA) have evaporated. PIA has signalled a worse era of pain for Nigerians.

Expectedly, Nigerians are blaming the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). This is a convenient victim. And it has always been so in recent history. We call for the heads of the gaffers at NNPC without looking in the direction of the chief culprits: the past and present president of Nigeria who, without exception, assumed the role of Minister of Petroleum. NNPC is only as good as the supervising minister, in this case, the presidents. The Presidency, not NNPC, at all times pulls the strings and calls the tune. NNPC Board is only a willing channel that helps the Presidency to control the lever and drag the pulleys that drive the petroleum sector.

In the prevailing circumstance, some Nigerians have called for the head of Mele Kyari, the Group CEO of NNPCL. Some have nudged Tinubu to sack Kyari without delay. But that’s a subterfuge in a sense. The President is the Minister of Petroleum and should be held responsible for all the woes in the petroleum marketplace. It is the same for all past Presidents who appropriated such role. Every position, whether elective or appointive, comes with its peculiar responsibilities. Tinubu must take responsibility for the woes in the sector which he supervises.

History has shown that every CEO of NNPC takes instruction from the President. In 2017, Ibe Kachikwu, a former Minister of State for Petroleum and Group CEO of NNPC who was later stripped of his NNPC duties, had a tiff with the then GMD of NNPC, Maikanti Baru. The quarrel was over lack of corporate governance in the award of $25 billion contract by NNPC without the knowledge of Kachikwu as minister of state. While it took President Buhari to ‘settle’ the quarrel, the matter was not lost on Nigerians on its essence: the opacity in the management of NNPC dealings. Secrecy has been the hallmark of NNPC management. Kyari, it must be said, has tried to buck the trend. He kept the NNPC ledger open for public scrutiny. It’s because of Kyari that Nigerians got to know about the losses and profits that NNPC made in recent years. Kyari deserves credit for this, not censure. He remains the only CEO of the national oil and gas behemoth to keep the books open. This is a strength of character and a symbol of courage in leadership. I would rather have a CEO who admits his strength and weakness than one who conceals everything and puts up a façade of excellence to cover a rot.

Those calling for Kyari’s head should direct their energy to urge Tinubu to wake up and clear the path for Dangote Refinery, now the hope of the people, to work maximally by ensuring that it gets enough crude oil from Nigeria just so it could refine enough petrol for local consumption. The country is red. Nigerians are on edge. High cost of fuel and now, scarcity of same, have shoved many families into the abys of hunger and privation. Nigerian economy responds to every stimulus from the petroleum sector, good or bad. Floating the naira and withdrawal of fuel subsidy all at the same time emitted a toxic stimulus and the marketplace reaction has been outrageous: Runaway inflation.

Dangote Refinery, which has promised high grade fuel, holds the key to ending fuel importation and putting a halt to the daily erosion of the value of the naira. And if, or when, the local public refineries resurrect, they will ramp up the throughput in refined petroleum products for the local market and ease the dollar pressure on the naira. This is beyond any CEO of NNPC; it’s the President’s call to make as the supervising Minister of this critical sector.

First published in Sunday Sun