September 27, 2022

Two months after his assassination, Shinzo Abe is still stirring controversy, testament to how the legacy of the polarizing former prime minister is shaping Japanese politics from defense to monetary policy.

Japan’s longest-serving prime minister was a divisive figure plagued by scandals. Recent revelations about his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s ties to the Unification Church, an organization critics call a cult, have sparked an outcry over his state funeral and sent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval rating to a record low.

However, Kishida is expected to continue some of Abe’s policies, at least for now. It’s a reflection of how Abe transformed both the LDP and Japan’s political landscape, experts say.

An uncompromising nationalist, Abe pushed the country into a muscular defensive stance that many now see as prescient amid growing concerns about China, even as he failed in his long-proclaimed mission to change the pacifist constitution.

Abe’s attempt to boost domestic demand with massive monetary and fiscal stimulus has also failed, but Kishida has so far given little hint that he might suddenly change those policies.

The current prime minister has also signaled that he will stay on course on two of Abe’s less controversial achievements: strengthening corporate governance and using tourism as a pillar of growth.

“I don’t think we’re seeing a return to anything that was before,” said Tobias Harris, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and author of a biography of Abe.

“If we look at the arc of his entire political career, the movement that he essentially led was in some ways successful. The way Japan will be governed in 2022 is very different,” when Abe was first elected to Parliament in 1993.

What is less certain, however, is who will replace Abe as leader of the party’s large and powerful right wing. Until his death, Abe led the largest faction, cementing his role as post-prime minister as a behind-the-scenes kingmaker.

Fear of partisan hawks may have prompted Kishida, part of the LDP’s more liberal wing, to push for the state funeral, said Tomoaki Iwai, professor emeritus at Nihon University and an expert on Japanese politics.

“Since the assassination, so much has come to light about the ties to the Unification Church, and it’s clear that Abe was part of this problem,” Iwai said. “I think that will prove a big miscalculation.”

DEFENSE EXPENSES

The LDP has pledged to double defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product over five years. That would make Japan the world’s third-largest military spender behind the United States and China.

Abe, whom some voters saw as overly restrictive, was never able to push through that kind of increase, even though his government passed legislation allowing the military to fight abroad for the first time since World War II and reinterpreted the anti-war constitution to do so To allow Japan to acquire long-range missiles.

Many Japanese continue to fear entanglement in US-led wars, although this has been eased by concerns about Chinese military activity around Taiwan.

Kishida was “generally viewed by voters as more moderate, likable and overall more trustworthy than Abe, giving him greater latitude to drive the defense agenda,” said James Brady, head of Japan analysis at consulting firm Teneo.

Kishida has promised to increase defense spending “significantly” but is yet to give details. Brady expects to stop doubling it and fund the hike through taxes instead of issuing bonds like Abe’s plan.

BOJ IN FOCUS

Abe-appointed Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has come under criticism for sticking with massive monetary stimulus and ultra-low interest rates, even as other central banks around the world have hiked interest rates to bolster currencies in the face of a rally support dollars.

The government intervened in the foreign exchange market last week, buying yen for the first time since 1998. Kuroda’s term ends in April, and his moderate deputy Masayoshi Amamiya is considered the most likely candidate to succeed him.

That could mean more of the ultra-loose policies and fiscal stimulus unleashed under Abenomics.

“No one seems to have an alternative to the policy mix that we have,” said Harris of the Center for American Progress, adding that the LDP is not invested in deficit reduction. “Abe somehow won the debate, even if the results were disappointing in many ways.”

REUTERS