BY KEN UGBECHIE

This is a paradox. Nigeria has great mathematicians, awesome statisticians. But Nigeria cannot conduct a credible headcount, otherwise known as census.

President Muhammadu Buhari seems determined to break this jinx. If he does, he would stand out from the crowd of leaders who came, saw but were overwhelmed. Indeed, it would be one of his best legacies, if not the very best. A proper and credible headcount is the best tool for national planning and development mapping. Any country without a reliable and verifiable census is merely groping in the dark as far as development is concerned.

A credible census gives you the demographics of any population. The number of men and women, age brackets of the populace, number and calibre of persons in urban, semi-urban and rural areas. On account of this, a nation is able to effectively distribute infrastructure and services to suit specific needs of the people. Education, healthcare, water resources, housing, transportation infrastructure and services are usually efficiently deployed where there is reliable headcount data.

Post-Independence Nigeria has had several censuses, but they usually turned out as censored census. Contentious! The 2023 census fixed for April next year by the National Population Commission (NPC) presents Buhari a rare opportunity to play the hero. Nigeria’s last census was in 2006, a good 16 years ago. Next year’s census would be happening 17 years after the last headcount. This is unacceptable and does not portray Nigeria as a serious nation.

No nation can develop without reliable population data. Such data is needed for effective planning; and where there is no planning, development is a mirage. Just think about it; how do you deploy resources in moments of emergencies? How do you determine where housing projects are needed more; or where certain categories of hospitals should be sited on account of diseases relative to specific environments; where do you have more aged (elderly) persons; which demographics of the population are in the city centres? Where do you have more women than men and vice versa? These and many more are usually captured in any credible national headcount. And they help the relevant development agencies to plan, allocate resources and provide solutions.

One of the complaints of foreign investors about Nigeria is the lack of current and reliable data on Nigeria’s demographics. At international conferences and business meetings, many investors have bemoaned the absence of contemporary data on Nigeria that would help them make intelligence-based decisions on where, what and when to invest in the country. A corollary to this is that delaying the census amounts to keeping development in abeyance.

Holding a national census more than 10 years apart is not ideal for national planning, going by the recommendation of the United Nations (UN). This makes the case of the 2023 census inevitable.

Postponing next year’s census under any guise accentuates the unseriousness of the nation and projects Nigeria in bad light in the comity of nations. It is simply ridiculous. Calls from certain quarters that the census be postponed because of next year’s general elections make the matter even more ridiculous. It portrays Nigeria as pathetically primitive given that many nations across the globe have successfully conducted their census within deliberately calibrated frequencies of five to 10 years as the case may be. And in some cases, they were conducted under atmosphere of insecurity.  If Nigeria could conduct general elections in 2015 and 2019 even with wide spread insecurity, why can’t she conduct a headcount under the same circumstance.

Truth is, there is no absolute peace any where in the world. Yet, major national projects including census and elections are conducted globally from nation to nation. It is wrong and unpatriotic to call for a postponement of the 2023 census. No reason justifies such. India has consistently conducted her census every 10 years in over a century despite internal upheavals and external conflicts with her neighbours. The 2023 elections should not stop the census either. The one should come after the other. The elections would not mark the end of Nigeria. It will not obliterate the country from the face of the earth. It’s the same general elections that other counties, including Ghana, have conducted effortlessly without locking down socio-economic activities. Why do we wish mayhem upon us just because of election? This is the notion that triggers a frenzy of violence and uncivil behaviour among a section of the electorate. Those who hype this rhyme of unreason should sing us another hymn. The 2023 election will come and go to pave way for the census. This is how nations build capacities and institutions; their ability to manage their internal challenges and contain forces that threaten to tear them apart.

In countries where there had been a break from the routine five to 10 years interval, such situation only arose on account of war. Nigeria is not at war. Election is not war. Besides, Nigeria’s elections are holding in the months of February and March, 2023. It means that the result of the census is not intended to be used to determine outcome of the elections as some have alleged. Such argument is unfounded and clearly flies in the face of logic and commonsense.

To argue that the census is coming too close after the election is to live with the mindset that the 2023 elections would trigger a major crisis in the country. Far be it. On the contrary, Nigerians should live with the consciousness that election is a democratic festival to celebrate the liberty of the people to freely choose their leaders. Nigerians should abhor such notion that every election is a herald of anarchy.

Buhari has given approval for the conduct of the 2023 census. The Council of State has endorsed it. The technology is ready, as the president assured it will be a digital census. NPC is primed to deliver the national project. More so, the exigency of the moment demands that Nigeria should by now have a reliable population database which will help in national planning as well as be a credible guide to investors. There should be no more excuses. If smaller nations (by population) like Ghana and Singapore and bigger ones like India (1.417 billion population) could undertake census every 10 years, Nigeria has no reason not to do so.

Conducting a census 17 years after the last exercise is already a misnomer, but postponing such census on account of election, mocks logic. The NPC should double up efforts to deliver a credible, tech-driven national headcount. For a headcount that would create about 3 million jobs within the period of the exercise, this will further help to assuage the pains of some Nigerians hunching under the weight of unemployment and underemployment. President Buhari should not let this opportunity slip. As he has given Nigerians and democracy a life line through the Electoral Act, he should strengthen the nation’s march to greatness by delivering a credible census in 2023 before signing off as President. What a pleasant swan song it would be!

First published in Sunday Sun