By Ikechukwu Amaechi

On Saturday, September 21, Edo electorate will elect a new governor who will superintend over the affairs of the state in the next four years. In other climes, that is a simple task.

Agreed, contestation for power is a serious business not meant for chicken hearted fellas, but the heavy lifting is done out on the hustings, talking to people. On Election Day, the will of the majority expressed through the ballot box prevails.

That is why, in such other climes, the polity is not shut down on Election Day. Movements are unhindered with schools, markets and sundry businesses remaining open as people exercise their franchise. But not so in Nigeria. As Edo people go to the polls in less than 48 hours, the State has been shut down and on hand to enforce the lockdown are 35,000 policemen and 8,000 other security personnel, including soldiers, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) operatives and Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) officials. The NSCDC alone deployed 6,433 personnel, including intelligence squads, anti-vandal units, and Special Forces mobilised from its national headquarters.

The Inspector General of Police (IGP), Kayode Egbetokun, said the 8,000 security personnel other than the police will man the waterways, as well as the entry and exit points to the state. The Defence Headquarters is claiming that the deployment of soldiers is meant to guarantee a safe environment for the electorate, despite the fact that a Federal High Court in Lagos, relying on a Court of Appeal judgement that barred the use of soldiers in the conduct of elections, ruled in 2015 that such deployment is a violation of Section 217(2)(c) of the Constitution and Section 1 of the Armed Forces Act.

Now, let us throw in some statistics for context. This is a standalone, off-cycle governorship election. Created on August 27, 1991, Edo occupies 17,802 km², which makes it the 22nd largest State by landmass in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 4.777 million as at 2022, it ranks as the 22nd most populous state. If the independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is to be believed, there are 2,629,025 registered voters in the State, out of which 2,249,780 collected their Permanent Voter Cards. The state has 18 local government areas with 4,519 polling units where 17 candidates, including the frontline three – Asue Ighodalo (PDP), Monday Okpebholo (APC) and Olumide Akpata (LP) – will slug it out on Saturday.

How is it that 25 years after, Nigeria cannot hold a successful election in one of its 36 states without so much security exertions? Any country that requires a total shutdown of the polity, deployment of well over 43,000 security personnel and signing of a peace accord to conduct a standalone election is a democracy hellhole.

And that brings me to the General Abdulsalami Abubakar-led National Peace Accord Committee (NPAC) and the spin by those adept at playing the ostrich that the mere signing of a peace accord guarantees a violence-free poll. Well, Governor Godwin Obaseki and his political party, the PDP, think otherwise. And I dare say, they are right.

Now, to be clear, there is need to promote peace and ensure a free, fair and credible governorship poll in Edo. But signing a peace accord that will be breached even before the ink dries on the paper, is a distraction. Yes, the optics of such ceremonials are good which explains why some political gladiators are ululating that Obaseki scored an own goal by opting out.

But the question remains: has Obaseki any reason to be doubtful that both the police and INEC are incapable of delivering justice in the Edo election? Yes, he has because both Prof Mahmoud Yakubu and IGP Egbetokun have shown bad faith.

Besides, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, promoter of the “power is not served a la carte school of politics” is assuring APC members that he will do for them what he knows how best to do – conjuring election results.

“You know me well. You know Adams Oshiomhole well. We are still going to fight further. Don’t worry, we are with you, you will not walk alone. One thing I can assure you is this: do you want Edo back? As the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I will give Edo back to you,” he told them. For a man whose political ideology is anchored on grabbing power and running with it, such declaration should not be dismissed with a wave of the hand.

Nothing on ground suggests that there will be a free and fair poll on Saturday. The INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) in the state, Dr. Anugbum Onuoha, is not only Nyesom Wike’s first cousin and close political ally but also a card-carrying member of the APC. The Edo State Commissioner of Police, Nemo Edin-Iwo, is also a Wike ally. These are the two most important officials in the election.

As if that is not bad enough, on the eve of the elections, IGP Egbetokun’s police embarked on an arrest spree, literally snatching PDP stalwarts from their homes and even on the road in the dead of the night and broad daylight and whisking them off to Abuja.

During General Abubakar’s visit to Obaseki last week, the governor alleged that the police who are expected to enforce the peace accord are working for the APC.

“The entity supposed to maintain and enforce the peace accord is now actively creating a destructive environment… in the last four weeks, we’ve had a situation where from the office of the IGP, armed police gangs have entered Edo State to invade, arrest, and take away PDP members,” he complained to the former military leader.

“As we speak, 10 PDP members are arrested and detained in Abuja without trial. Two days ago, they arrested a local government chairman… The IGP’s office issued a warrant to arrest 60 PDP supporters, driving all our leaders into hiding. My role as the Chief Security Officer of the state is being undermined by the IGP. When I hear of an arrest and contact the Commissioner of Police, I am told the individual has been moved to Abuja.”

Then, Obaseki pointedly asked him: “So, tell me, sir, how can we sign a peace accord under these circumstances?” General Abdulsalami had no answer.

The Edo State PDP has demanded, as a condition for signing the peace accord that all party members detained in police formations across the country be released, or alternatively, charged in competent courts if they have committed any crimes; the immediate redeployment of CP Edin-Iwo and REC, Dr. Onuoha.

These are reasonable demands for confidence building. But expectedly, IGP Egbetokun laughed it off while INEC flatly rejected the call for Onuoha’s redeployment.

We have had instances in the past where Police Commissioners and Resident Electoral Commissioners are redeployed prior to elections. So, why is it different this time? If these two men were sympathetic to Obaseki, they would have been deployed.

For those who are condemning Obaseki, the PDP and its candidate, Asue Ighodalo, for not signing the peace accord, the question the governor asked the NPAC chairman remains germane: how can a peace accord be signed under the circumstances without addressing the genuine concerns of a party to the election?

President Tinubu, Senator Oshiomhole and Minister Wike are known to have an axe to grind with Governor Obaseki. It does not matter that unlike in 2020, he is not on the ballot this time. It is bad enough that the trio are leaders without any known fidelity to free and fair elections. They all worship at the altar of Tinubu’s grab and run brand of politics. So, allowing men who owe total allegiance to them to superintend over the election is tantamount to crossing the red line.

As the legendary reggae artist, Peter Tosh, noted in his second studio album, Equal Rights, which was released in 1977 on Columbia Records, even as everyone is crying out for peace, there will be none ’till men get equal rights and justice.’

What is needed in Edo State on Saturday is a level playing field. Let the sovereign will of the people expressed through the ballot box prevail. The only thing that can guarantee peace is free, fair and credible poll, not a perfunctory peace accord that has become a fad but which no one is prepared to respect.

Whoever wins does not matter as long as he is the people’s choice. That is the essence of democracy. It is not a warranty that the best candidate will always win but it guarantees that the decision of the majority carries the day no matter how flawed it is.

As Peter Tosh also noted in the Get Up, Stand Up track, “You can fool some people sometimes, but you can’t fool all the people all the time.” INEC fooled Nigerians in 2023, telling people cheated out of their victory to go to court, and got away with it. But the people are wiser and the electoral umpire may not be twice lucky. Edo people must vote and protect their votes, no matter the level of subterfuge and intimidation by those to whom free and fair elections is an anathema. They owe themselves that duty. It is a matter of honour.