It’s over a year now since the National Population Commission, NPC, took delivery of census materials from suppliers. And about a year since ad hoc staffers were trained for what was first, 2022 census, then 2023 and now potentially 2024 census. Should the twice-postponed headcount hold this year, it will be exactly 18 years since the last headcount of 2006.

By any index of development, this is tardy and completely unacceptable. No serious nation should wait for a long haul of 18 years to organise a headcount that ought to hold every 10 years, and in some countries every 5 years. It does not only show lack of seriousness, it projects a picture of gross underdevelopment and paints a portrait of a people in a bind and unwilling to crawl out of the dark alley. Census is not for fun. It’s for planning, for development, for investment decisions, for improved healthcare, allocation of critical resources, siting of health, educational institutions, general infrastructure allocation, among other props of development.

Advanced and developing nations across the globe conduct censuses quietly, conveniently and accurately, relatively so. They have achieved the UN-recommended frequency of ‘every 10 years’. For some, it’s now every five years. With that, they can effectively plan for the development of their respective countries. They can effectively delineate their population along the critical lines of demographics, gender, education, population density relative to counties, towns, cities, states, and any other sub-nationals that constitute the superstructure called country. Why then is the case of Nigeria different?  Nigerian factor? Lack of political will at the centre? Inadequate resources? Whatever it is, there must come a time in the life of a nation when both will and resources must coalesce. For Nigeria and her census, this is that time. The Bola Tinubu government must muster the will to conduct a national headcount this year. Failure to do so, the nation suffers humungous loss and damage. Having been delayed, postponed or cancelled these past years, Nigeria cannot afford further deferment in conducting a verifiable census worthy of a nation that seeks to attract foreign investors.

Aside not earning the confidence of foreign investors who usually rely on national population and demographics data to make informed decisions on where and what to invest, Nigeria stands to lose billions of naira already invested in the twice-deferred headcount. Over N300 billion worth of technical equipment and accessories procured by the NPC for the botched 2023 census may go to waste if the Federal Government fails to action the conduct of the national headcount with immediate effect.

Here’s how. In early February 2023, the NPC took delivery of the census materials supplied by vendors and technical consultants and partners.  That’s well over a year ago. The materials were delivered nationwide in readiness for the census then scheduled for the second quarter of 2023. The census never held and the materials have continued to gather dust in facilities of the NPC in 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

President Muhammadu Buhari had wanted to ensure the conduct of the population and housing census as one of his legacy projects before leaving office, but for some reasons, chief of which was the transitional plans to a new government which culminated in the 2023 general elections, the census was postponed. The census was one exercise that the usually taciturn Buhari gushed with excitement each time it was discussed at the Federal Executive Council. Buhari had dubbed it the nation’s first ever ‘digital census’ because of the heavy deployment of technology to organise what many believed would be the most credible census in the country’s annals.

Technical evaluation shows that most of the equipment may go bad due to humidity and lack of use as they may not have been stored in the best conditions that would guarantee their durability and effectiveness over a long period. Technically, some electronic devices, namely laptops and other handhelds, have been known to malfunction when stored in a humid environment on account of heat and poor aeration.

In the case of the NPC and the census, the equipment supplied include tablets, batteries, power-banks and medical first aid materials. While some of the first aid materials could expire before any new census date is fixed, the motherboards inside the tablets could go bad if the humidity in the storage facilities exceeds a certain threshold.

Experts have warned that if the materials are not warehoused within a conducive ambience, the possibility of the equipment going bad is very high. The Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) which is the tablet to be used in the population and housing census has a shelf-life of about three years which is the average shelf-life of tablets. But this may be compromised if they are not stored in appropriate environmental conditions. Besides, tablets are not designed to last for many years unlike laptops and desktops because of their low processing power and difficult upgradability. This is one compelling reason the government should action the conduct of the census: the risk of losing over N300 billion already sunk into the project.

President Tinubu should make the conduct of the ‘digital census’ a priority of his government. Every delay imprints damage on the nation both economically and socially. Delay is a denial of both indigenous and international investors access to reliable data on Nigeria. One of the complaints of foreign investors about Nigeria is the lack of current and reliable data on Nigeria’s demographics. At international conferences and business meetings, many investors have bemoaned the absence of contemporary data on Nigeria that would help them make intelligence-based decisions on where, what and when to invest in the country.

Holding a national census more than 10 years apart is not ideal for national planning, going by the recommendation of the United Nations (UN). This makes the case for conducting the census in a matter of months inevitable. NPC projects that the census will create about 3 million ad hoc jobs. This will help mitigate the growing unemployment in the country particularly among the youths.

Ghana has achieved national census frequency of every 10 years, same as Singapore. South Africa was holding census every five years but had to push it to every 10 years. South Korea, Canada and Japan hold census every five years. India, with a 2022 population of 1.417 billion, according to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects data, has maintained a 10-year frequency since 1872 when the first census was conducted. If countries with small and mega population can dutifully keep to the UN-recommended frequency, Nigeria has no reason not to conduct credible census at least every 10 years. The ball is in Tinubu’s court. He should arise and do what Presidents Jonathan and Buhari could not do or failed to do.

First published in Sunday Sun