Trump surges but Clinton holds slender advantage, survey shows
Barely 24 hours before Americans go to the polls after a long and stormy election season, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton held onto her four-point lead over Republican Donald Trump on Monday, according to surveys from CBS and Fox News.
The CBS telephone poll, carried out November 2-6, sampled 1,753 adults, including 1,426 registered voters. It gave Clinton a four-point lead over Trump, with 47 to 43 percent of the vote in a head-to-head contest and the same margins — 45 to 41 — in a four-way vote that included third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.
The poll found that most voters were not swayed by the announcement last week of a renewed FBI probe into Clinton’s use of a private email server when she was secretary of state, or by a dozen sexual assault allegations made by women against Trump. Some of the respondents were contacted after FBI Director James Comey announced Sunday that he still saw no reason to indict Clinton for her use of a private server, a conclusion he came to in July.
In the Fox News phone survey Clinton had a similar four point lead with 48-44 percent over Trump, in a four-way vote including the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. The figures remained the same for a two-way contest between just Clinton and Trump.
Fox News, which sampled 1,410 likely voters between November 3-6, found that among independents Trump had more support with a 42-36 lead over Clinton.
Half the CBS survey respondents (50%) said they strongly favor their chosen candidates; however 20% of Clinton’s supporters said they were voting for her because they don’t like her rivals. Among Trump supporters, 24% said they were voting for the Republican because they dislike the other candidates.
Among supporters of the candidates, 56% said they like Clinton a lot, while slightly less than half (48%) of Trump supporters said the same about their candidate.
Most voters (95%) have already decided how they will vote and only 5% said they might still change their minds.
Most voters (55%) expect Clinton to win — including 23% of Trump supporters. Only 7% of Democrat voters expect Trump to win, while 62% of Republican voters predicted their candidate’s victory.
Most Trump voters (65%) said they had already made up their minds on who to vote for before September, and 75% of Clinton backers had also decided by then to vote for the Democratic nominee.
Two-thirds of likely voters (64%) said that FBI email probe didn’t influence their voting, while 29% said they are less likely to vote for Clinton as a result.
While most (59%) said the sex claims against Trump made no difference to how they would cast their ballot, more than a third (36%) said the allegations would make them less likely to vote for Trump. 59% no difference, 36% less likely.
A clear majority, 66% said they will definitely vote in the November 8 elections and 21% said they already have.